16th Mar 2010
Early Rally Fades
The ISDEX http://www.wsrn.com/apps/ISDEX/ rose 14 to 454, and the Nasdaq added 18 to 2859. The S&P 500 added 3 to 1364, and the Dow slipped 3 to 10,646. Volume rose to 1.3 billion shares on the NYSE, and 2.55 billion on the Nasdaq. Advancers led by a handful of issues on the NYSE, and 20 to 17 on the Nasdaq. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies on Capitol Hill tomorrow morning, less than a week before the Fed's next meeting. For earnings reports, visit our earnings calendar at http://www.wsrn.com/apps/earnings/internet.xpl and reported earnings at http://www.wsrn.com/apps/earnings/ireported.xpl. For after hours quotes and news, visit our after hours trading site at http://www.afterhourstrading.com.
Corning fell 4 to 66 after hours after blowing away estimates by 6 cents with 34-cent earnings, but issuing cautious forward guidance. Akamai, VeriSign and Exodus also traded lower after hours despite beating estimates. E*Trade was unchanged after beating estimates by a penny, while Kana plunged 2 1/2 to 7 after missing estimates by 17 cents with a 37-cent loss.
During the day, Broadcom traded as high as 139 1/2 after beating estimates by a penny with 32-cent earnings, and revenues of $376 million topped estimates of $370 million. But Robertson Stephens raised concerns about the sustainability of the company's growth-through-acquisition strategy, sending the stock down 8 11/16 to 124 3/4.
Siebel Systems rose 1 to 79 1/4 on earnings of 20 cents, a nickel ahead of estimates. Compaq surged 2.35 to 22.40 after beating estimates by 2 cents with 30-cent earnings.
Digital River soared 1 7/16 to 8 15/16 after beating estimates by 10 cents with an 11-cent loss. WebTrends tacked on 1 3/16 to 34 15/16 after beating estimates by a penny with 11-cent earnings. Resonate slipped 7/32 to 4 5/8 after the company's 25-cent loss beat by a penny.
1-800-Flowers.com slipped 3/16 to 5 1/2 after beating by 3 cents with a 16-cent loss. Avanex plunged 16 11/16 to 65 3/16 after topping estimates but failing to raise forward guidance.
InterNAP lost 1 9/16 to 8 7/16 after matching estimates with a 41-cent loss. Delano Technology slipped 5/16 to 4 3/16 after the company's 35-cent loss met estimates. New Era of Networks added 11/16 to 5 3/8 after beating estimates by a penny with a 34-cent loss.
FVC.com missed by 5 cents with a 35-cent loss, and the stock dropped 13/32 to 2. CyberSource lost 1/4 to 2 3/4 after bettering estimates by a penny with a 44-cent loss.
RealNetworks fell 1 to 11 1/16 after Merrill Lynch issued a Neutral rating and said Microsoft could do to RNWK what it did to Netscape.
iManage rose 29/32 to 7 9/32 on a deal with Cisco. Portal Software soared 3 9/32 to 11 13/16 on a deal with privately-held TellMe Networks and news that it could win a contract from AOL Time Warner.
Netopia, up 13/16 to 9, will be acquired by Proxim.
Some technical comments on the market: Note: We are now including charts in the technical market commentary. If you can't get the charts via the e-mail newsletter version, try this link: http://www.afterhourstrading.com/column.html
The Nasdaq turned back today after running into its smaller rising channel broken Monday (the red line). While that is a negative, it's interesting to note that the Nasdaq's movement since Friday has formed a potential new rising channel (the gray lines). If that lower gray line holds, it would be a positive development. With Alan Greenspan speaking tomorrow and the Fed meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, it may be tough to make much headway over the next week. The Nasdaq is overbought and due for a pullback, but we expect any correction to be modest, perhaps to the gaps at 2618.55 on the Nasdaq and 2470.72 on the Nasdaq 100, and certainly no lower than 2450 on the Nasdaq, the lower channel boundary (black line) in that chart. The quick return of momentum buying to the Nasdaq has come as a surprise, but flattening/topping patterns in indicators such as CCI, PPO, MACD and stochastics seem to argue for a pullback or at least a pause here.
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